ROMANIA’S POPULATION DECLINE AND DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE: SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASPECTS

Lucian Adrian Sala

DOI Number
10.22190/FUEO1801073S
First page
073
Last page
084

Abstract


Like most of the countries around the world, European member states are suffering from the declining population, due to low birth rates and decreasing death rates. Romania’s population is undergoing a series of changes that will continue to unfold in the foreseeable future. Demographic transitions are taking place in the case of all member states that are part of EU-28, with various degrees of intensity. Romania’s population has been shrinking and undergoing a continuous process of erosion since 1992 when it hit a peak of 23.2 million. Under the influence of a decreasing birth rate and death rate, the population is projected to decrease from 19.8 million in 2015 to 14.5 million in 2080. This article examines how these inevitable changes will shape Romania's demographic landscape, with an emphasis on the changes over time suffered by the total population, birth rates, and life expectancy, as seen through the ”Demographic Transition Model” stages as put forward by Thompson in 1929. Also, this article will touch upon some of the main economic consequences that arise as a result of these demographic transitions.


Keywords

demographic transition, population decline, birth rates, death rates, economic consequences, pension expenditures, social expenditures, ARMA

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22190/FUEO1801073S

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