Lucian Adrian Sala

DOI Number
First page
Last page


Like most of the countries around the world, European member states are suffering from the declining population, due to low birth rates and decreasing death rates. Romania’s population is undergoing a series of changes that will continue to unfold in the foreseeable future. Demographic transitions are taking place in the case of all member states that are part of EU-28, with various degrees of intensity. Romania’s population has been shrinking and undergoing a continuous process of erosion since 1992 when it hit a peak of 23.2 million. Under the influence of a decreasing birth rate and death rate, the population is projected to decrease from 19.8 million in 2015 to 14.5 million in 2080. This article examines how these inevitable changes will shape Romania's demographic landscape, with an emphasis on the changes over time suffered by the total population, birth rates, and life expectancy, as seen through the ”Demographic Transition Model” stages as put forward by Thompson in 1929. Also, this article will touch upon some of the main economic consequences that arise as a result of these demographic transitions.


demographic transition, population decline, birth rates, death rates, economic consequences, pension expenditures, social expenditures, ARMA

Full Text:



Börsch-Supan, A. (2013). Myths, scientific evidence and economic policy in an aging world. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 1-2, pp. 3-15.

Blacker, C. P. (1947). Stages in population growth. The Eugenics Review, Vol. 39, pp. 88-101.

Cristea, M, Drăcea, R. & Marcu, N. (2010). The direction of the financial sectors involvement in overcoming crisis: A case study of Romania. African Journal of Business Management, 4(15), pp. 3356-65.

Cristea, M., Marcu, N. & Cercelaru, O.V. (2016). Longer Life with Worsening Pension System? Aging Population Impact on the Pension System in Two Countries: Romania and Croatia. Economic and Social Development: Book of Proceedings, p. 28.

Cristea, M. & Mitrică A. (2016). Global Ageing: Do Privately Managed Pension Funds Represent a Long Term Alternative for the Romanian Pension System? Empirical Research. Romanian Journal of Political Science, 16(1).

Eiras, G. M. & Niepelt, D. (2012). Ageing, government budgets, retirement and growth. European Economic Review, 56, pp. 97-115.

Eurostat. (2000). Eurostat Glossary on Demographic Statistics. Eurostat, , Accessed on: 14 September 2017.

Gheţău, V. (2007). Declinul demografic și viitorul populației României. O perspectivã din anul 2007 asupra populației României în secolul 21[Demographic decline and the future of the Romanian population. A Perspective on the Population of Romania in the 21st Century]., Buzău: Alpha MDN.

Graham, B., Normand, C. & Goodall, Y. (2003). Proximity to death and acute health care utilisation in Scotland. Information and Statistics Division, NHS, Scotland.

Hock, H. & Weil, D. N. (2012). On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency and consumption. Journal of Population Economics, 25, pp. 1019-1043.

Kirk, D. (1996). Demographic transition theory. Population Studies, 50, pp. 361-387.

Mason, A. & Lee, R. (2011). Population aging and the generational economy: key findings. Population Aging And Generational Economy Project, pp. 3-31.

Mihăescu, C. (2001). Populație & Ocupare – Trecut. Prezent. Viitor[Population & Employment - Past. Present. Future]. The Economic Publishing House. Bucharest.

Oliviera-Martins, J. O., Gonand, F., Antolin, P., Maisonneuve , C., & Yoo, K.-Y. (2005). The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth. OECD.

Prettner, K. (2012). Population aging and endogenous economic growth. Journal of Population Economics, 26, pp. 811-834.

Radu, C. (2007). Causes and Consequences of the World Population Evolution. The Young Economists Journal, 1(7), pp. 137-148.

Thompson, Warren S. (1929). Population. American Journal of Sociology, 34(6), pp. 959-975.

Wanless, D. (2001). Securing our future: taking a long-term view: an interim report. UK Treasury, London.

Weil, D. N. (2006). Population Aging. National Bureau of Economic Research, working paper.

Yong, V. & Saito, Y. (2012). National long-term care insurance policy in Japan a decade after implementation: some lessons for aging countries. Ageing International, 37, pp. 271-284.



  • There are currently no refbacks.

© University of Niš, Serbia
Creative Commons License CC BY-NC-ND
ISSN 0354-4699 (Print)
ISSN 2406-050X (Online)