Jimoh Sina Ogede, Felix O. Ajayi

DOI Number
First page
Last page


The determinants of food prices have attracted sizeable debates among scholars over the last three decades. However, many of these studies ignore the possibility that the impact of oil prices on food prices could vary across the food price distribution. The paper employs a quantile regression technique to ascertain whether food prices respond to the potential heterogeneous impact of crude oil price changes in the six selected African net oil-exporting countries. The coefficient of negative oil price shocks in the panel OLS model is insignificant and positive at the 5% significance level. In contrast, the coefficient of positive oil price shocks significantly affects food prices for the chosen African countries. The quantile regression analysis's empirical findings highlight the diverse dependence effects of various ranges on food prices. All coefficients are non-significant across all quantiles for negative oil price shocks, a conclusion consistent with panel least squares estimate results. Besides, the findings prove that positive changes in oil prices significantly affect the magnitude of food prices in selected African countries. The article concludes that the influence of crude oil price variations on food prices is diverse and positive across quantiles for a subset of Africa's net oil-exporting countries. The findings of this study could have a crucial policy and economic implications for economic agents and stakeholders in diverse fiscal environments. As a result, economic agents must make timely decisions to respond to the effects of oil price uncertainty on Africa's food market.


Oil prices, Food prices, Heterogeneity effects, Quantile regression, Africa

Full Text:



Adeosun, O. P., Olayeni, O. R., & Ayodele, O. S. (2021). Oil-food price dynamics in an oil-dependent emerging economy. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 15(1), 36-57. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-03-2020-0015

Alghalith, M. (2010). The interaction between food prices and oil prices. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1520-1522. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.08.012

Andersen, T. G., & Bollerslev, T. (1998). Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models do Provide Accurate Forecasts. International Economic Review, 39(4), 885-905. https://doi.org/10.2307/2527343

Avalos, F. (2014). Do oil prices drive food prices? The tale of a structural break. Journal of International Money and Finance, 42, 253-271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.014

Baumeister, C., & Kilian, L. (2013). Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?. CEPR Discussion Paper, 9689. Retrieved from https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=9689

Ciaian, P., & Kances, A. (2011). Interdependencies in the energy–bioenergy–food price systems: a cointegration analysis. Resources and Energy Economics, 33(1), 326-348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2010.07.004

Fowowe, B. (2016). Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Evidence from South Africa. Energy, 104, 149-157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.03.101

Gardebroek, C., & Hernandez, M. A. (2013). Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol, and corn markets. Energy Economics, 40, 119-129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.06.013

George, E. O., & Ogede, J. S. (2020). Asymmetric Oil Price and Inflation: Evidence from Net Oil Exporting Countries in Africa. Izvestiya Journal of Varna University of Economics, 64(2), 168-179.

Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data. Econometric Journal, 3(2), 148-161. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1368-423X.00043

Ibrahim, M. H. (2015). Oil and food prices in Malaysia: A non-linear ARDL analysis. Agricultural and Food Economics, 3, 1-14, http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40100-014-0020-3

Im, K. S., Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics 115(1), 53–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7

Jadidzadeh, A., & Serletis, A. (2018). The global crude oil market and biofuel agricultural commodity prices. Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 18, e00094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2018.e00094

Kilian, L. (2008). The economic effects of energy price shocks. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 871-909. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.46.4.871

Koirala, K. H., Mishra, A. K., D’Antoni, J. M., & Mehlhorn, J. E. (2015). Energy prices and agricultural commodity prices: testing correlation using copulas method. Energy, 81, 430-436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.12.055

Kyung, S. C., & Jeong, H. B. (2011). Dynamic impacts of high oil prices on the bioethanol and feedstock markets. Energy Policy, 39, 753-760. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.049

Lahiani, A. (2018). Exploring the inflationary effect of oil price in the US. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 13(1), 60-76. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-05-2018-0002

Lucotte Y. (2016). Co-movements between crude oil and food prices: a post-commodity boom perspective. Economics Letter, 147, 142-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.08.032

Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Panel Data Unit Root Tests and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 631-652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468- 0084.0610s1631

Mehnatfar, Y., Khanian, Z. B., & Azari, Z. (2018). Oil Price Shocks and Inflation in Iran: Quantile Regression Approach. Quarterly Journal of Energy Policy and Planning Research, 4(1), 171-191. Retrieved from http://epprjournal.ir/article-1-292-en.html

Meyer, D. F, Sanusi, K. A., & Hassan, A. (2018). Analysis of the asymmetric impacts of oil prices on food prices in oil-exporting, developing countries. Journal of International Studies, 11(3), 82-94. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2018/11-3/7

Nazlioglu, S., & Soytas, U. (2012). Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: a panel cointegration and causality analysis. Energy Economics, 34(4), 1098-1104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.09.008

Nicola, F. D., Pace, P. D., & Hernandez, M. A. (2016). Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: a time-series assessment. Energy Economics, 57, 28-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.04.012

Nusair, S. A., & Olson, D. (2018). The effects of oil price shocks on Asia exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis. Energy Economics, 78, 44-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.11.009

Ogede, J. S., George, E. O., & Adekunle, I. A. (2020). Exploring the Inflationary Effect of Oil Price Volatility in Africa’s Oil Exporting Countries. Facta Universitatis, Series: Economics and Organization, 17(2), 113-125. https://doi.org/10.22190/FUEO191202009O

Ogede, J. S. (2020a). Distributional changes in oil price and inflation in the net oil-exporting countries in Africa. Journal of Management and Science, 18(2).

Ogede, J. S. (2020b). Does Oil Price Volatility Drive Household Consumption Expenditures in Nigeria?. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 9(2), 257-268. http://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.15498

Pal, D., & Mitra, S. K. (2018). Interdependence between crude oil and world food prices: a detrended cross-correlation analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 492, 1032-1044. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.11.033

Peri, M., & Baldi, L. (2012). The effect of biofuel policies on feedstock market: empirical evidence for rapeseed oil prices in EU. Resources and Energy Economics, 35(1), 18-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2012.11.002

Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross-Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No 0435, University of Cambridge: Faculty of Economics.

Reboredo, J. C. (2012). Do food and oil prices co-move?. Energy Policy, 49, 456-467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.035

Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Rasoulinezhad, E., & Yoshino, N. (2018). Volatility Linkages between Energy and Food Prices: Case of Selected Asian Countries. ADBI Working Paper 829. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/publications/volatility-linkages-between-energy-and-food-prices-asiancountries

Wang, Y., Wu, C., & Yang, L. (2014). Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices. Energy Economics, 44, 22-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.016

Zhang, C., & Chen, X. (2014). The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries. Energy Policy, 66, 32-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.067

DOI: https://doi.org/10.22190/FUEO210920003O


  • There are currently no refbacks.

© University of Niš, Serbia
Creative Commons License CC BY-NC-ND
ISSN 0354-4699 (Print)
ISSN 2406-050X (Online)