Zoran Marjanovic, Miomir Raos, Ljiljana Živković, Dušica Pešić, Milan Protić, Milena Jovanović

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Abstract: This paper presents an economic analysis of different introduction strategies, as well as different elements thereof, for different kinds of electric vehicles, including hybrid vehicles. A cost-benefit analysis is a tool for comparing effects, positive and negative, of different activities or projects. A cost-benefit analysis is undertaken for increasing the number of various kinds of hybrid vehicles in the Serbian transport sector. We use a standard cost-benefit model where we are fundamentally interested in consumer welfare, or utility. Utility depends positively on both consumption of transport services and other goods, as well as on environmental quality. Hence, people are willing to sacrifice consumption, to a certain extent, for improving environmental quality, and since environmental quality is linked (negatively) to emissions, they are willing to pay for reduced emissions as well. It is found that, although the local and regional environmental costs will decrease, this is generally not profitable for purely (battery) electric passenger cars. We also found that hybrid cars which are not grid-chargeable, i.e. that have a relatively small battery pack, appears to be much more promising, and it is possible that such cars may even be privately profitable in 10 years perspective, due to their high fuel efficiency and modest additional production costs. We also analyse city-based hybrid delivery trucks and hybrid bus, which seem to have an even larger potential profitable.

Key words: risk economic, cost-benefit analysis, electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, consumer surplus

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