Milan Protić, Miomir Raos, Jasmina Radosavljević, Ljiljana Živković, Nenad Živković, Emina Mihajlović

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This paper presents the application of statistical methods to determine the

length of solar radiation based on the data obtained from the   meteorological station Negotin, and we may presume that these data are also representative for a wider area of northeastern Serbia. Negotin is a town in northeastern Serbia, in the Bor District, with the population of ca. 17000, near the border with Romania and Bulgaria. The results of the application of statistical methods allow us to predict the future trend of the time series, i.e. to predict the sunshine duration in the sample area.

We performed the measurements using several models to predict the trend of the time series of sunshine duration, whereby it was essential to use the most suitable model. Selection and evaluation of models were applied to a series of annual sums of sunshine duration observed between 1991 and 2011 in the meteorological station in Negotin. Using an ARIMA model and the trends method, we obtained the predictions of sunshine duration in Negotin up to 2015. The prediction results show reduced sunshine duration on annual basis over the  observed time of prediction.

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