ON THE THRESHOLD OF “ADULTHOOD”: WESTERN BALKANS’ TRANSITION FAILURES

Abstract

After the beginning of the transformation of centrally-planned economies into market economies, the implementation of a transition project in the case of new EU members (a total of 10 countries joined through the enlargements of 2004 and 2007) lasted for almost two decades, far longer than the pessimistic forecasters announced. By contrast, the Western Balkan countries (in total 6 of them), with the exception of Croatia (EU member since 2013.), have neither continuity nor adequate success in carrying out the reform processes. That is why their transition still has an uncertain outcome and an unpredictable duration. In order to determine to which stages the less developed countries have arrived at the moment when those more advanced have almost finished their transition, we will use the EBRD indicators. We will then explain the phases of Western Balkans transition dynamics (first wave reforms and deeper reforms) in order to show that these economies have partially followed the pattern reccommended by advanced economies, leaving the segment of deeper reforms unfinished. Finally, relying on the new model for measuring transitional progress (which the EBRD has been using since 2011), we will try to evaluate which part of the predicted trajectory Western Balkans really crossed on their path to transitional “adulthood”.