APPLICATION OF TIME-SERIES METHODS FOR THE MODELING OF SUNSHINE DURATION SEQUENCES

Milan Protić, Miomir Raos, Jasmina Radosavljević, Ljiljana Živković, Nenad Živković, Emina Mihajlović

DOI Number
-
First page
153
Last page
161

Abstract


This paper presents the application of statistical methods to determine the

length of solar radiation based on the data obtained from the   meteorological station Negotin, and we may presume that these data are also representative for a wider area of northeastern Serbia. Negotin is a town in northeastern Serbia, in the Bor District, with the population of ca. 17000, near the border with Romania and Bulgaria. The results of the application of statistical methods allow us to predict the future trend of the time series, i.e. to predict the sunshine duration in the sample area.

We performed the measurements using several models to predict the trend of the time series of sunshine duration, whereby it was essential to use the most suitable model. Selection and evaluation of models were applied to a series of annual sums of sunshine duration observed between 1991 and 2011 in the meteorological station in Negotin. Using an ARIMA model and the trends method, we obtained the predictions of sunshine duration in Negotin up to 2015. The prediction results show reduced sunshine duration on annual basis over the  observed time of prediction.


Full Text:

PDF

References


G. Athanassouli, and G. Massouros: The influence of solar and long-wave radiation on the thermal gain of a room with opaque external wall, Sol. Energy, 30(1983), 2, pp. 161-170.

K.Bakirci: Correlations for Estimation of Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surfaces, J. Energy Eng., 134 (2008), 4, 130-134

CEC, European Solar Radiation Atlas, Vol. I Horizontal Surfaces, Commission of the European Communities, 1984a.

CEC, European Solar Radiation Atlas, Vol. II Inclined Surfaces, Commission of the European Communities, 1984b.

D. Feurmann: A Repetitive Day Method for Predicting the Long-Term Thermal Performance of Passive Solar Buildings, ASME J. Sol. Energy Eng, 112, (1990), 1, pp. 34-42.

P. Gburcik, V. Gburcik, and M.B. Gavrilov, V. Srdanovic, S. Mastilovic: Complementary Regimes of Solar and Wind Energy in Serbia, Geographica Pannonica, 10 (2006), pp. 22-25.

Y. Jiang: Correlation for Diffuse Radiation from Global Solar Radiation and Sunshine Data at Beijing, China, J. Energy Eng., 135 (2009), 4, pp.107–111.

R.W.Katz, and R.H. Skaggs: On the use of autoregressive-moving average processes to model meteorological time series,. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109 (1981), pp. 479-484.

Lj. Stamenic: Use of solar photovoltaic energy in Serbia, Belgrade, 2009.

M. Lambic: Solar walls – The Passive solar heating, 2nd edition, University of Novi Sad, Technical Faculty Zrenjanin, Serbia, 2000.

G.M.Ljung, and G.E.P. Box: The likelihood function of stationary autoregressive-moving average models, Biometrika, 66 (1979), 2, pp. 265-270.

T. Manish, K. Manoj, and S. Ripunjai: Time series models for smoothing and forecasting weather parameters influencing forest fires, Statistic in transition, 9, (2008), 3, pp. 389 - 408.

M. Santamouris, et al.: Modeling the Global Solar Radiation on the Earth’s Surface Using Atmospheric Deterministic and Intelligent Data-Driven Techniques, Journal of Climate, 12 (1999),10, pp. 3105-3116.

M. Sekaric: Quantitative methods, Statistics, Belgrade, 2004.

J. Radosavljevic, and A. Djordjevic: Defining of the Intensity of Solar Radiation on Horizontal and Oblique Surfaces on Earth, Facta Universitatis, Series: Working and Living Environmental Protection, 2 (2001), 1, pp.77 – 86.

P. Gburcik, et al: Study of potential of Serbia for explcitation of wind and solar energy, MNZŽS, National energy eficiency programm, EE704-1052A, Belgrade, 2004.

J. Ledolter: The analysis of multivariate time series applied to problems in hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, 36 (1977), pp. 327-352.

Meteorological year book 1, Climatological data, for period 1961-1990., Hydro-meteorological Institute of Serbia, 1993.

Box. G.E.P., and Jenkins. G.M.: Time series analysis: Forecasting and control, San Francisco. CA: Holden Day, 1976.

V.Badesceu: Use of Sunshine Number for Solar Irradiance Time Series Generation, Modeling solar radiation at the earth¢s surface, Springer, 2008.

Z. Chen, B. Yu,and P.A. Shang: Calculating Method Of Albedo and Experimental Study of its Influence on Building Heat Environment in Summer, ASME, J. Sol. Energy Eng., 129 (2007), 2, pp.243-248.

J. De Gooijer, and R. Hyndman: 25 years of time series forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, 22 (2006), pp. 443 – 473.

J. Wu, C. Chan, J. Loh, F. Choo, and L.H. Chen: Solar radiation prediction using statistical approaches, ICICS, (2009), pp. 1-5.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


ISSN   0354-804X (Print)

ISSN   2406-0534 (Online)