CREDIT SCORING WITH AN ENSEMBLE DEEP LEARNING CLASSIFICATION METHODS – COMPARISON WITH TRADITIONAL METHODS

Ognjen Radović, Srđan Marinković, Jelena Radojičić

DOI Number
https://doi.org/10.22190/FUEO201028001R
First page
029
Last page
043

Abstract


Credit scoring attracts special attention of financial institutions. In recent years, deep learning methods have been particularly interesting. In this paper, we compare the performance of ensemble deep learning methods based on decision trees with the best traditional method, logistic regression, and the machine learning method benchmark, support vector machines. Each method tests several different algorithms. We use different performance indicators. The research focuses on standard datasets relevant for this type of classification, the Australian and German datasets. The best method, according to the MCC indicator, proves to be the ensemble method with boosted decision trees. Also, on average, ensemble methods prove to be more successful than SVM.


Keywords

credit scoring; classifier ensemble, deep learning, support vector machine

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abdou, H., & Pointon, J. (2011). Credit Scoring, Statistical Techniques and Evaluation Criteria: A Review of the Literature. Intelligent Systems in Accounting Finance & Management, 18, 59–88.

Altman, E. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.

Asuncion, A., & Newman, D. J. (2010). UCI machine learning repository. School of information and computer science, Retrieved from: http://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/

Baesens, B., Van Gestel, T., Viaene, S., Stepanova, M., Suykens, J., & Vanthienen, J. (2003). Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Classification Algorithms for Credit Scoring. The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 54(6), 627-635.

Bequé, A., & Lessmann, S. (2017). Extreme learning machines for credit scoring: An empirical evaluation. Expert Systems With Applications, 86, 42-53.

Breiman, L. (1996). Bagging predictors. Machine Learning, 24, 123-140.

Dastile, X., Celik, T., & Potsane, M. (2020). Statistical and machine learning models in credit scoring: A systematic literature survey. Applied Soft Computing Journal, 91, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106263

Dietterich, T. G. (1998). Approximate statistical tests for comparing supervised classification learning. Neural Computation, 10(7), 1895–1923.

Durand, D. (1941). Risk Elements in Consumer Instalment Financing. New York: National Bureau of Economy Research.

Einav, L., Jenkins, M., & Levin, J. (2013). The impact of credit scoring on consumer lending. The RAND Journal of Economics, 44(2), 249–274.

Fisher, R. (1936). The use of multiple measurements in taxonomic problems. Annals of Eugenics, 7(2), 179-188.

Freund, Y., & Schapire, R. E. (1997). A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 55(1), 119-139.

Goh, R., & Lee, L. (2019). Credit Scoring: A Review on Support Vector Machines and Metaheuristic Approaches. Advances in Operations Research, 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/1974794

Hand, D. J., & Henley, W. E. (1997). Statistical classifcation methods in consumer credit scoring: a review. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 160(3), 523-541.

Hui, L., Li, S., & Zongfang, Z. (2017). The Model and Empirical Research of Application Scoring Based on Data Mining Methods. Procedia Computer Science, 17, 911-918.

Jurman, G. R. S. (2012). A comparison of MCC and CEN error measures in multi-class prediction. PLoS ONE, 7(8), 41882.

Kim, A. Y.-C. (2020). Can deep learning predict risky retail investors? A case study in financial risk behavior forecasting. European Journal of Operational Research, 283(1), 217-234.

Lewis, E. (1992). An Introduction to Credit Scoring. San Rafael: Fair, Isaac and Co., Inc.

Li, Y., Lin, X., Wang, X., Shen, F., & Gong, Z. (2017). Credit Risk Assessment Algorithm Using Deep Neural Networks with Clustering and Merging. 13th International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security (CIS) (pp. 173-176). Hong Kong: IEEE.

Lou, C., Wu, D., & Wu., D. (2017). A deep learning approach for credit scoring using credit default swaps. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 65, 465-470.

Matthews, B. W. (1975). Comparison of the predicted and observed secondary structure of T4 phage lysozyme. Biochimica et Biophysica Acta (BBA) - Protein Structure, 405(2), 442–451.

Nanni, L., & Lumini, A. (2009). AAn experimental comparison of ensemble of classifiers for bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring. Expert Systems with Applications, 36, 3028–3033.

Neagoe, V., Ciotec, A., & Cucu, G. (2018). Deep Convolutional Neural Networks Versus Multilayer Perceptron for Financial Prediction. 2018 International Conference on Communications (COMM) (pp. 201-206). Bucharest: IEEE

Odom, M., & Sharda, R. (1990). A neural network model for bankruptcy prediction. 1990 IJCNN International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, 2, pp. 163-168.

Ohlson, J. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131.

Orgler, Y. (1971). Evaluation of bank consumer loans with credit scoring models. Journal of Bank Research, 2(1), 31-37.

Oztekin, A., Al-Ebbini, L., Sevkli, Z., & Delen, D. (2018). A decision analytic approach to predicting quality of life for lung transplant recipients: A hybrid genetic algorithms-based methodology. European Journal of Operational Research, 266(2), 639–665.

Patil, P. S., Aghav, J. V., & Sareen, V. (2016). An Overview of Classification Algorithms and Ensemble Methods in Personal Credit Scoring. International Journal of Computer Science and Technology, 7(2), 183-188.

Pławiak, P., Abdar, U., & Acharya, R. (2019). Application of new deep genetic cascade ensemble of SVM classifiers to predict the Australian credit scoring. Applied Soft Computing Journal, 84, 105740.

Ren, Y., Zhang, L., & Suganthan, P. (2016). Ensemble Classification and Regression-Recent Developments, Applications and Future Directions. IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine, 11(1), 41-53.

Sadatrasoul, S. M., Gholamian, M. R., Siami, M., & Hajimohammadi, Z. (2013). Credit scoring in banks and fnancial institutions via data mining techniques: a literature review. Journal of AI and Data Mining, 1(2), 119-129.

Thomas, L., Crook, J., & Edelman, D. (2002). Credit Scoring and Its Applications, Second Edition. Philadelphia: Society for Industrial and. and Applied Mathematics.

Vapnik, V. N. (1998). Statistical Learning Theory. New York: Wiley- Interscience.

Wang, G., Hao, J., Ma, J., & Jiang, H. (2011). A comparative assessment of ensemble learning for credit scoring. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(1), 223-230.

Zhou, H., Lan, Y., Soh, Y., Huang, G., & Zhang, R. (2012). Credit risk evaluation with extreme learning machine. IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC), (pp. 1064-1069). Seoul.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.22190/FUEO201028001R

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


© University of Niš, Serbia
Creative Commons License CC BY-NC-ND
ISSN 0354-4699 (Print)
ISSN 2406-050X (Online)