A STUDY ON BITCOIN PRICE BEHAVIOUR WITH ANALYSIS OF DAILY BITCOIN PRICE DATA
Abstract
Cryptocurrencies, which have begun to become an important rival to cash due to the changing lifestyle and technological developments, are gradually increasing their coverage area. Whether Bitcoin prices, which have exhibited different behaviors over the years since the day they were developed, are on a rational basis has become an important topic of discussion. Within the scope of this study, bitcoin prices between 2010 and 2023 were analyzed and factors that could make price behavior meaningful were tried to be determined. In addition, a forecast was also made in which Bitcoin prices for the coming years were calculated on a daily basis together with various statistical parameters using the the triple exponential smoothing method based on same historical data, and the results were discussed from various perspectives. In Bitcoin prices, which change mainly within the framework of supply and demand balance, attention has been drawn to the importance of different factors such as rational or irrational herd behavior, decisions taken about Bitcoin or news that may affect this balance and fall within the scope of behavioral finance. Along with the behavioral finance parameters that will make Bitcoin price behavior meaningful, it may not always be possible to attribute some changes in the relevant data to a specific reason. The main view supporting this situation is based on the personal nature of cryptocurrency itself.
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